Here is the Bloomberg piece that inspired this lecture.

Agency Mortgage-Bond Spreads Rise; Markets `Utterly Unhinged'
By Jody Shenn
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities rose to a new 22-year high relative to U.S. Treasuries as banks stepped up margin calls and concerns grew that the Federal Reserve may be unable to curb the credit slump.
The difference in yields, or spread, on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae's current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year government notes widened about 21 basis points, to 237 basis points, the highest since 1986 and 103 basis points higher than on Jan. 15. The spread helps determine the interest rate homeowners pay on new prime mortgages of $417,000 or less.
The markets have become ``utterly unhinged,'' William O'Donnell, a UBS AG government bond strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a note to clients today. A lack of liquidity has ``led to stunning air-pockets in price levels.''
Investors are realizing that banks have little room to make new investments amid rising losses and a flood of unwanted assets, said Scott Simon, head of mortgage-backed bonds at Pacific Investment Management Co. The world's top banks have reported more than $181 billion in asset writedowns and losses, been stuck with $160 billion of leveraged buyout loans, and bailed out $159 billion of structured investment vehicles.
``Everything is telling you the financial system is broken,'' Simon, whose Newport Beach, California-based unit of Allianz SE manages the world's largest bond fund, said in a telephone interview today. ``Everybody's in de-levering mode.''
Agency mortgage securities outstanding, which are guaranteed by government-chartered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or federal agency Ginnie Mae, total almost $4.5 trillion, about the same size as the U.S. Treasury market
No Savior
The widening spreads prompted speculation the government may step in to support securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said Tom di Galoma, head of U.S. Treasury trading in New York at Jefferies & Co., a brokerage for institutional investors. The Treasury Department said the rumor isn't true.
``The Fed can't really save the mortgage market,'' di Galoma said. ``As they keep cutting, mortgage rates aren't going lower.''
The spread of current-coupon fixed-rated securities guaranteed by Ginnie Mae against 10-year Treasuries has climbed 55 basis points this month to 205 basis points, also the highest since the 1980s, according to Bloomberg data. Debt guaranteed by Ginnie Mae is explicitly backed by the U.S. government, and based on loans already insured or guaranteed by its agencies. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Carlyle Margin Call
Carlyle Group's publicly traded mortgage bond fund, which raised $300 million in July and used loans to buy about $22 billion of agency mortgage securities, failed to meet margin demands and has received a notice of default. In margin calls, banks demand more collateral on their loans because of falling prices. Lenders have been imposing ``additional collateral requirements'' outside of margins call, Carlyle said today.
``The capital issues at commercial banks are making them, in general, reluctant to lend, so lending is either harder to find or when you do find it, it's more expensive or the other terms are more-limiting.'' Steven Abrahams, an analyst with Bear Stearns Cos., said in a telephone interview yesterday.
``If there's less money to finance positions and less balance-sheet available to warehouse positions, the markets are going to become more volatile,'' he said.
Carlyle Capital Corp. missed four of seven margin calls yesterday totaling more than $37 million, the Guernsey, U.K.- based fund said today in a statement. Thornburg Mortgage Inc., the Santa, Fe, New Mexico-based owner of ``jumbo'' mortgages and securities backed by adjustable-rate loans, said yesterday it received a default notice from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Next to Blow Up
``The single biggest concern right now is who's the next hedge fund to blow up, and how big are they,'' Arthur Frank, the New York-based head of mortgage-backed-securities research at Deutsche Bank AG, said in an interview today. ``The more the market widens, the more likely it is that another leveraged player has to sell, so it does feed on itself.''
Bloomberg current-coupon indexes represent the average of yields for the two groups of bonds with prices just above and below face value, the ones that lenders typically package new loans into.
Prices for agency securities backed by adjustable-rate mortgages with five years of fixed-rates fell 0.63 percent this month through yesterday, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. index data. Fixed-rated securities fell 1.66 percent, according to the New York-based company. The various classes of collateralized mortgage obligations used to repackage agency bonds collectively have fallen 0.9 percent, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data.
``Traders are putting their phones down and backing slowly away from their desks,'' O'Donnell said today in a telephone interview. ``Relatively little'' agency mortgage-backed securities are being traded, Pimco's Simon said.

Beginning tomorrow, the new conforming limit on loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration will be temporarily raised to $729,750, more than double the current limit of $362,790, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced today.
The limit, which is good until the end of the year when it reverts back to $362,790, will apply only to loans insured under a program administered by FHA, which targets low to moderate-income home shoppers.
HUD will announce tomorrow the new conforming loan limit for all markets, a spokesman said. Conforming loans are sold to government-sponsored buyers such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and have a current limit of $417,000 in California and most states.
The FHA and conforming limit increases could give the housing market a boost. Rates on jumbo loans, which are above the limit, have risen to about a percentage point above conforming rates.
The average rate Tuesday on a 30-year fixed conforming loan in Orange County was 5.841% with a one-point fee, while the average jumbo rate on a 30-year fixed was 6.908% with a one-point fee.
But Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have yet to say when they will begin buying larger loans or if they will impose any restrictions, such as requiring larger down payments. Some housing watchers say rates on loans up to $729,750 might not drop as much as government officials hope.
President Bush signed a stimulus package into law last month that included granting HUD the power to raise the conforming limit based on 125% of the median home price in high-cost areas. HUD said today Orange County’s median home price is $710,000. That’s much higher than DataQuick, which pegged the median home price in January at $520,000 for all houses and condos, and $583,250 for just resale houses.
HUD said it calculated median prices based on government and commercial data.
From HUD’s release, here is a list of each county in California, with the median home price and the new FHA limit on the far right. HUD tomorrow is expected to release limits for areas in other states. To find the new limits for your county visit the direct HUD search tool here.

Alameda County 995000 729750

Alpine County 438000 547500

Amador County 355000 443750

Butte County 320000 400000

Calaveras County 370000 462500

Colusa County 318000 397500

Contra Costa County 995000 729750

Del Norte County 249000 311250

El Dorado County 464000 580000

Fresno County 305000 381250

Glenn County 230000 287500

Humboldt County 315000 393750

Imperial County 260000 325000

Inyo County 350000 437500

Kern County 295000 368750

Kings County 260000 325000

Lake County 321000 401250

Lassen County 200000 271050

Los Angeles County 710000 729750

Madera County 340000 425000

Marin County 995000 729750

Mariposa County 330000 412500

Mendocino County 410000 512500

Merced County 378000 472500

Modoc County 125000 271050

Mono County 370000 462500

Monterey County 599000 729750

Napa County 615000 729750

Nevada County 450000 562500

Orange County 710000 729750

Placer County 464000 580000

Plumas County 328000 410000

Riverside County 400000 500000

Sacramento County 464000 580000

San Benito County 790000 729750

San Bernardino County 400000 500000

San Diego County 558000 697500

San Francisco County 995000 729750

San Joaquin County 391000 488750

San Luis Obispo County 550000 687500

San Mateo County 995000 729750

Santa Barbara County 615000 729750

Santa Clara County 790000 729750

Santa Cruz County 719000 729750

Shasta County 339000 423750

Sierra County 228000 285000

Siskiyou County 235000 293750

Solano County 446000 557500

Sonoma County 530000 662500

Stanislaus County 339000 423750

Sutter County 340000 425000

Tehama County 250000 312500

Trinity County 200000 271050

Tulare County 260000 325000

Tuolumne County 350000 437500

Ventura County 599000 729750

Yolo County 464000 580000

Yuba County 340000 425000

I know it seems like a decade ago but people used to get a big head about their recent investment property purchase or their great 1% rate on their 1.3m condo in the city. WAMU, Countrywide, INDYMAC, World Savings(bought by Wachovia) and countless bankrupt lenders did these loans all day long. They allowed the borrower to have a payment that was less than the interest on the underlying mortgage. The "teaser rate" allowed people to qualify for a lot more home than they could possibly afford. Up until mid 2007 borrowers would be qualified based on the teaser rate that typically lasted for 5 years or until the loan had negativly amortized to 105% or 110% of the original balance. Then the loan would fully amortize. Meaning a HUGE spike in the payment. Let's not even mention the people that believed the loan officer or broker who swore on his/her upcoming BMW payment that the 1% was fixed. Yes, it is fixed but they were placing a serious bet about their income and the property market overall. Overall industry standard performance on these loans is that around 75% of people make the 1% negative amortization payment on their pick-a-pay. More like pick-your-poison.

I am all for financial innovation and creative financing but this product was heavily pushed to the point of terrible underwriting. The banks placed bets as well that property would continue to appreciate and/or the borrower would make a lot more in the future. During 2006, 60% of the loans done in Los Angeles/Orange County CA were interest only. A great percentage of the loan volume in CA done between 2004-07 were the option arm variety. The radio jingle ran" No points, no fees, lower your mortgage payment today 1% call today 1-800-...."

The time bomb begins to go off starting in 2009. These loans will be like a neutron bomb. Kill the formerly happy home owner/investor and leave the house standing in line for a foreclosure. Granted a great percentage of these will be fine, but if you think defaults were interesting from a perspective of that only happens in "working class"(read:poor) neighboorhoods then you have seen nothing like the upcoming disaster of 2009-2011. As an example here is the breakdown on a 750k loan with a 1.25% teaser and a fully indexed rate of 6.826% which is an excellent rate for a super prime borrower:

Minimum Payment Rate: 1.250%
Fully Indexed Rate (FIR): 6.826%
Minimum Payment: $2,499.39 ( Deferred Interest: $1,766.86 )
Interest Only Payment: $4,266.25
Fully Amortizing 30-Year Payment: $4,902.44
Fully Amortizing 15-Year Payment: $6,668.46
Fully Amortizing 40-Year Payment: $4,566.25 (not available)
Possible Minimum Payment Changes (based on a 30-year loan term)
Year 1
$2,499.39
= Base of Minimum Payment
Year 2
$2,686.84
= $2,499.39 + 7.50%
Year 3
$2,888.36
= $2,686.84 + 7.50%
Year 4
$3,104.98
= $2,888.36 + 7.50%
Year 5
$3,337.86
= $3,104.98 + 7.50%

If you like the math misery done for you on a negam visit the calculator here. Also if you would like to read a previous post on the topic and watch a video of the time bomb click here.

As of the end of December, Countrywide had nearly $29 billion in pay-option loans, with about $26 billion of the total having grown beyond their original loan amount, the company said in a filing late Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
"Our borrowers' ability to defer portions of the interest accruing on their loans may expose us to increased credit risk," the company said. It added that its risk could be greater because the amount of deferred interest on pay-option loans was on the upswing.
The company noted some 81 percent of the loans were made out to borrowers who provided little or no documentation on their income. As of the end of December, 71 percent of borrowers with pay-option loans were electing to make less than full interest payments.
Even though borrowers with such loans had the option to just make interest payments, many were increasingly missing payments, the company said.
Some 5.71 percent of the loans based on unpaid principal balance were at least 90 days late as of Dec. 31, up from 0.65 percent a year earlier.
Like other lenders, Countrywide has since tightened its lending criteria and curtailed lending of so-called no documentation loans. It has also ramped up programs aimed at modifying loans for borrowers before their loans reset to higher rates.
At the close of last year, Countrywide's total loan servicing portfolio was valued at about $1.5 trillion.
Total delinquencies as a percentage of the number of loans was 6.96 percent, up from 5.02 percent at the end of the prior year. Some 1.04 percent of loans were facing foreclosure, up from 0.65 percent a year earlier.
California accounted for the highest portion of Countrywide loans, according to unpaid principal balance, of any state, the lender said.
The state had around $389 billion in loans, followed by Florida, with loans totaling around $113 billion. Texas, New York and New Jersey rounded out the list.
The company's banking unit, which also funds some of Countrywide's home loans, had $87.1 billion loans held for investment on its books at the end of the year.
A large portion of that stemmed from loans made in California and Florida, once-hot housing markets that have now been battered by falling prices and rising mortgage defaults and foreclosures. About $37 billion in loans were made to borrowers in California. Another roughly $6 billion pertained to loans in Florida.